Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 23.919580 26.313024 29.009547 32.309881 36.293748 41.020602 47.170271
2025-02-09 20.678298 23.802813 27.620542 32.764289 39.749307 49.311886 64.262937
2025-02-16 18.355879 21.833898 26.348811 32.915970 42.789085 58.290604 87.987063
2025-02-23 16.498933 20.099651 24.989887 32.544014 44.915293 66.962890 119.539104
2025-03-02 15.206386 18.899537 24.112668 32.609040 47.696081 78.358156 174.201437
2025-03-09 14.100007 17.798373 23.179988 32.343342 49.789348 89.920803 261.773146
2025-03-16 13.187469 16.860543 22.342723 32.035421 51.686133 102.743390 429.001086
2025-03-23 12.422203 16.054528 21.594744 31.718841 53.459135 117.239084 834.430104
2025-03-30 11.799127 15.399413 21.001032 31.559438 55.542525 135.640848 2783.687323
2025-04-06 11.166795 14.675678 20.213196 30.889066 56.188787 150.165090 222599.030938
2025-04-13 10.964456 14.596953 20.484537 32.338942 62.931643 207.671658 NaN
2025-04-20 10.505163 14.074919 19.938300 32.008665 64.612179 243.642172 NaN
2025-04-27 10.139501 13.685297 19.600096 32.099910 67.805159 309.086404 NaN
2025-05-04 9.836014 13.376022 19.376149 32.411062 71.999241 422.536072 NaN
2025-05-11 9.528299 13.039302 19.070704 32.487151 75.527506 588.072048 NaN
2025-05-18 9.188603 12.628977 18.594232 32.085802 77.123164 775.398370 NaN
2025-05-25 8.928824 12.337958 18.317915 32.129565 80.691659 1254.394042 NaN
2025-06-01 8.654160 12.006554 17.938464 31.860157 82.853069 2094.334030 NaN
2025-06-08 8.395958 11.690231 17.565089 31.554614 84.790671 4295.803475 NaN
2025-06-15 8.155333 11.392661 17.207717 31.243217 86.638859 16515.213125 NaN
2025-06-22 7.946520 11.140476 16.922575 31.086378 89.329993 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 7.702168 10.816042 16.474036 30.431961 88.989341 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 7.667702 10.856983 16.759043 31.845002 102.159352 NaN NaN